Macroeconomic Insights: United States CPI – Firms are Still Front-Loading
To date, uncertainty has been the defining feature of the inflation story. Volatile trade policy has deterred many firms from making strategic investments, slowing business activity across the board. Now, as companies learn to anticipate the cadence of the Administration’s tariff announcements, the 90‑day reprieves offer a temporary window of certainty that can support capital spending. For example, the recent agreement to maintain a 30% tariff on Chinese goods until August 12 (before it jumps to 55%) has triggered a clear front‑loading opportunity (Figure 1).
Figure 1